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I recently read The Expectation Effect: How Your Mindset Can Transform Your Life by David Robson. This is a summary of the most useful, actionable takeaways.

The book’s central thesis: our brains are “prediction machines” that create expectations to help us sort through the vast amounts of information and stimuli in our day-to-day world. These expectations have self-fulfilling physiological and psychological effects – the very act of expecting something changes the outcome to match what you (or your brain) expect. In some sense, this “Expectation Effect” embodies the modern zeitgeist of “manifesting” what you want in your life but offers a scientific mechanism rather than a cosmic or religious one.

The Pitfalls of Pop Science Books

We should be skeptical of pop science books. Scientists rarely write them. Publishers don’t have peer review and may not incorporate rigorous fact-checking. Claims are reinterpreted and exaggerated by editorial and marketing departments. A writer’s love for narrative can lead to cherry-picked evidence and overreliance on anecdote, generalizing findings far beyond their original scope.

Fortunately, The Expectation Effect has roughly 40-50 citations per chapter, most from respectable-sounding journals. I found the author’s claims about health and fitness to be in line with the studies and expert interviews I’ve independently read. While reassuring, I didn’t dig through any of the studies or experts cited in the book. The following notes take the author’s claims at face value.

Actionable Insights and Implementations

Here are the most impactful takeaways from The Expectation Effect, along with concrete examples taken from the book.

1. Rethinking Abilities Through Mindset and Priming

• • Insight: We self-impose limits and underestimate our capabilities when there is no way to verify we can’t improve further. Our mood and expectations can bias our view of events, often leading to a self-fulfilling prophecy.
  • Example: Strength athletes thinking they were on performance-enhancing drugs (actually sugar pills) gained strength significantly faster than those told they were taking a placebo.
  • Takeaway: Before a performance or a challenging task, visualize success and affirm your ability to excel by reminding yourself of past successes and positive traits, even if unrelated to the task at hand. Challenge any conscious or unconscious limits you’ve set on yourself. Embrace performance crutches like specific rituals, routines, and superstitions (e.g. using your “lucky pen” on a test, listening to a specific song before a workout, etc.). Affirm the positive aspects and potential benefits of any situation to prime your expectations toward a positive outcome.

• • Reflection: What limits do you impose on yourself? What language or framing do you subconsciously use to set an implicit expectation? What are times you’ve surpassed your own expectations?

2. Transforming Perceptions of Health and Pain

• • Insight: Negative expectations can exacerbate health issues, while a positive outlook can mitigate them.
  • Example: Chronic worriers experience higher levels of inflammation and pain. People who think they’re likely to die, get sick, or experience side effects become more likely to experience all those things.
  • Takeaway: Reframe health-related anxieties with positive affirmations. Notice when you’re ruminating on pain and catastrophizing symptoms so you can break the cycle. Tell yourself “the pain is temporary.” For medicines, reframe “5% of patients have side effect X” as “95% were free of side effect X” and see side effects as evidence of the healing effect of the medicine on your body.

• • Reflection: How do you typically react to illness or pain? Do you assume the worst?

3. Exercise and Framing

• • Insight: Negative thoughts about exercise can impede our fitness goals, but viewing exertion positively can enhance our performance.
  • Example: Viewing physical exertion as a sign of your body getting stronger can improve workout results. Visualizing exercises while injured can significantly reduce muscle atrophy¹. Framing incidental activity (cleaning, walking to your car, etc.) as exercise enhances the health benefits and induces more exercise.
  • Takeaway: Before exercising, set positive performance goals and visualize achieving them. Between sets, visualize yourself doing the exercise². Embrace any physical discomfort as evidence of your progress, rather than a sign of being unfit. Avoid frequent “upward comparisons” i.e. comparing yourself to fitness influencers or even past, more fit versions of yourself.

• • Reflection: How do you mentally approach physical activity? As a chore that drains you, or an activity that energizes you?

4. Eating Habits and Sensory Enhancement

• • Insight: The way we perceive food can influence our eating habits and even how we absorb nutrients.  The stronger the (positive) sensory connection, the more satisfying the meal is.
  • Example: Thinking of food as “healthy” rather than “satiating” leads to more hunger. Reminding yourself of what you ate previously reduces snacking.
    • Takeaway: When preparing or choosing meals, focus on the sensory and nutritional benefits. Describe your food positively to enhance the eating experience. Associate unhealthy food with indulgence rather than guilt so you’ll feel fuller and eat less. Experience food more by being present and visualizing what you ate after the meal to feel fuller and eat less.

• • Reflection: Are you distracted when you eat? What foods in your diet can be reframed as “satiating” and “indulgent” rather than “healthy” and “unhealthy”?

5. Sleep, Happiness, and the Role of Effort

• • Insight: Striving too hard for happiness or sleep can paradoxically make them more elusive.
  • Example: Anxiety about not being able to fall asleep makes it harder to fall asleep. Conversely, roughly 50% of sleeping pills’ efficacy is placebo.
  • Takeaway: Practice mindfulness and acceptance, especially in moments of restlessness or unhappiness. Recognize these feelings and passively observe them without judgment. Gently guide your focus back to positive expectations. Accept and relabel anxious and stressful feelings for more energy and sharpened focus.

• • Reflection: Are there areas in your life where you’re trying too hard and your own efforts are counterproductive?

6. Willpower: Expectedly Abundant or Finite

• • Insight: Viewing willpower as a finite resource can lead to its faster depletion, whereas believing in its abundance improves it.
  • Example: People who see challenging tasks as energizing maintain their willpower better than those who view them as draining.
  • Takeaways: Cultivate a sense of autonomy by establishing personal routines. Regularly engage in activities that reinforce your control and autonomy, like using a lucky charm or personal ritual. Expect that you’ll have the willpower to accomplish all you need to today. Find internalized negative expectations, and test them by finding new challenges that push you out of your comfort zone.

• • Reflection: How do you usually perceive your willpower during demanding tasks?

7. Intelligence: Influenced by Belief and Expectation

• • Insight: Intelligence can be enhanced – or diminished – by the belief in its malleability and the power of internal and external expectations.
  • Example: Being told something can increase creativity, recall, or general knowledge (e.g. whiffing cinnamon before a test improves test scores) leads to better results. Doubting someone’s abilities (consciously or unconsciously) makes them do worse.
  • Takeaways: Practice self-affirmation and remind yourself of past successes (even in areas unrelated to the task at hand) to boost confidence. Surround yourself with people who have high expectations of you and minimize contact with those who doubt your abilities³. Be aware that your expectations of others can influence their abilities too. Do not wallow in feelings of inadequacy or something being “not my thing”. Looks (and voice) can have an effect on people’s expectations of you which in turn affects outcomes, so it is logical to invest in your appearance.

• • Reflection: What expectations do those around you hold for you?

8. Aging: A State of Mind Influenced by Expectation

• • Insight: A youthful mindset and positive attitudes toward aging can lead to a healthier, longer life.
  • Example: Older adults who view aging positively engage more in physical activities and report fewer health issues.
  • Takeaways: Challenge age-related stereotypes by seeking inspiration from individuals who have achieved great things later in life. Embrace the benefits of aging, such as wisdom and experience, and avoid attributing every health issue to age. Beware of media that reinforces negative stereotypes about aging

• • Reflection: What are your beliefs about aging? What positive effects of your own aging have you overlooked?

Implementing the Expectation Effect

The book doesn’t claim that Expectation Effects take away the realities of the physical universe or society, but does make a case that they can meaningfully make our lives better. It suggests the following:

1. Embrace a Growth Mindset

Understand that your mind is ever-evolving, with neuroplasticity at the core of your ability to change and adapt.

• Set Small Goals: Establish incremental, achievable objectives that demonstrate your capacity for change.
• Learn from Failures: Instead of viewing setbacks as defeats, treat them as opportunities for learning and growth.
• Celebrate Progress: Take time to recognize and celebrate each step forward, no matter how small.

2. Adopt an External Perspective

Sometimes, gaining clarity means stepping outside yourself and viewing situations from a different angle.

• Reframe Challenges: See challenges as opportunities for healing and growth rather than obstacles. You don’t have to ignore negative feelings, but you can reinterpret their consequences (e.g. physical symptoms are a sign of body healing; anxiety can be energizing and exciting).
• Practice Self-Distancing: Project yourself into the future and look back at current challenges, or advise yourself as you would a friend facing a similar situation⁴.

3. Practice Self-Compassion

Being kind to yourself is crucial for overcoming difficulties and fostering change⁵.

• Acknowledge Struggles: Recognize the complexities of your challenges and understand you’re not alone in facing them.
• Foster Safety: Create a mental environment where it’s safe to experiment with new habits without fear of judgment or failure.
• Believe in Change: Maintain a supportive and encouraging attitude toward yourself, affirming your ability to grow and change.

4. Employ Affirmations

Throughout the book, Robson cites studies where participants were primed with various affirmations and then measured on relevant outcomes alongside a control group. My friend, Josh Chang, has extracted various affirmations referenced in these studies, which I’ve listed below. You can write them on index cards and cycle through them daily, or use an app that displays a daily affirmation on your phone.

• I don’t worry about my moment-to-moment happiness
• My life is fulfilling regardless of my moment-to-moment happiness
• When I’m nervous, I’m more excited and energetic
• When I’m stressed, I’m more focused and productive
• When I resist a strong temptation, I feel stronger and can withstand new temptations
• When I work and put in effort, I gain mental energy and willpower
• After moderate sleep loss, I still perform well and recover quickly
• Each year, I feel younger and more: energetic
• Things keep getting better as I get older
• As I get older, l become wiser, more capable, and more useful
• I control my own aging. I am always in my prime
• When I approach new people, I have much more confidence than most
• Negative thoughts and feelings are external to me; I simply observe and accept them
• I’m already amazing as I am
• My mania fuels itself in a positive feedback loop
• I’m an extrovert. I do things an introvert wouldn’t do
• I’m a morning person, so I naturally wake up full of energy
• I love being active. Exercise gives me energy
• I prefer the taste of lighter, healthier foods
• People like me a lot. They enjoy spending time with me
• I’m blessed. I love my life
• I’m a grateful person. I can always find the positive in things
• I’m clever, quick, and witty. Many people have told me this

Ultimately, utilizing the Expectation Effect is less about suppressing or eliminating negative feelings and more about reframing them.

If you view your physical and emotional pain as proof of your resilience and part of your path to healing, if you believe yourself to be motivated and invigorated by challenge, if you trust that every problem you face is tractable in light of your own formidable and growing capabilities, you may just make it so.

Epilogue: What about WOOP?

WOOP is a framework for achieving goals. Oregon State defines it as:

• W – wish
• O – (best) outcome
• O – (main inner) obstacle
• P – plan

The WOOP website cites various studies (although they go under different names in the literature, such as “self-regulation intervention” and “mental contrasting with implementation intentions”, and the implementation may not have been consistent across them) showing benefits in similar areas such as health and fitness, academic and intellectual activities, and interpersonal relationships.

The “outcome” step involves visualization, and we may find a synergy between the Expectation Effect – a phenomenon of framing/visualizing events and circumstances in a positive and empowering way to improve outcomes – and WOOP – a concrete method to actualize goals and ambitions.

Thanks to Josh Chang, Nishita Morris, and various AIs for reviewing drafts of this post. 

Notes:

1. In The Art of Learning, Josh Waitzkin mentions a similar anecdote while preparing for a martial arts championship with a broken arm: “There was also an intriguing physical component of my recovery. I wanted to compete in the Nationals, so bizarre though it may sound I resolved not to atrophy. At this point in my life I was very involved in the subtle internal dynamics of the body through Tai Chi meditation. I had an idea that I might be able to keep my right side strong by intense visualization practice. My method was as follows: I did a daily resistance workout routine on my left side, and after every set I visualized the workout passing to the muscles on the right. My arm was in a cast, so there was no actual motion possible—but I could feel the energy flowing into the unused muscles. I admit it was a shot in the dark, but it worked. My whole body felt strong, and when the doctor finally took off my cast he was stunned. Four days before the Nationals an X-ray showed that my bone was fully healed, and I had hardly atrophied at all.
2. Arnold Schwarzenegger emphasizes visualizing the mind-muscle connection as part of a physical training regimen in Arnold: The Education of a Body Builder.
3. The first time I ever used this positive affirmation technique, aided by my friend and chess mentor Hartley Chiang, I defeated one of the top chess players in the US in a rated/ranked tournament game.
4. LLM chatbots can be helpful as a self-distancing tool. I’m working on one that I can talk to (either via text or via AI voice and phone call) to help me with this.
5. Self-flagellation has been difficult for me to unlearn. I hold myself to a very high standard even when I don’t perform to a very high standard. My natural inclination has been that I shouldn’t be “rewarded” for this failure with compassion, as it only encourages future laziness and laxity. But in my experience, self-talk doesn’t lead to better performance, only demoralization and a greater chance of giving up entirely. I would never treat someone I cared about like this when they struggled with a goal or a vice; I’ve somehow only insisted upon this cruelty to myself.